Prep Forecast vs Actual Tracker
Reconcile planned demand with actual prep, service use, recorded waste, and safe ending carryover. Turn each meaningful variance into a named action for the next service.
Entries stay in this browser tab. Use one consistent unit per item. This working review does not replace inventory, waste, temperature, donation, or food safety records required by your operation.
Service review
Item reconciliation
Available quantity equals actual prep plus opening usable carryover. It should reconcile to actual use, recorded waste, and ending usable carryover.
What each variance means
Demand variance compares actual service use with planned demand. It measures forecast direction, not production accuracy.
Prep variance compares actual prep output with the released prep plan.
Unaccounted quantity is available product minus actual use, recorded waste, and ending carryover. Investigate the records before assigning a cause.
A useful review changes one decision
Do not react to one unusual service by permanently changing every par. Look for repeated patterns by weekday, channel, event type, weather, and menu mix.
Write the next action as a testable rule, such as reducing the final slaw batch by one pan after 1:00 p.m., then assign an owner and review date.
| Item | Plan / actual prep | Available | Used | Waste | Ending | Variance | Reason and next action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicken taco filling example Unit: lb Within working tolerance | 32 / 32 | 36 | 31 | 1 $3.20 | 4 | Demand: +1 Unaccounted: 0 | Demand was close to forecast Next: Keep the current base forecast and review by weekday Owner: Kitchen lead |
| Slaw example Unit: qt REVIEW | 15 / 15 | 17 | 10 | 1 $4.50 | 5 | Demand: -2 Unaccounted: +1 | Side selection was lower than forecast Next: Reduce the weekday buffer and test a smaller final batch Owner: Operations manager |
Use one consistent unit per item. Verify transfers, comps, samples, staff meals, rework, waste, and safe carryover before treating a difference as unexplained loss.